This page displays baseline and projected climate data for Québec, Canada.
The projected is based on Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Each scenario presents alternative narratives on how the world might develop over the following years in the absence of climate policy while carrying differing assumptions about human developments, such as population, education, urbanization, economic growth, greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions, energy supply and demand, land-use changes.
Figure 1. Shared Socio-economic Pathways and year 2100 radiative forcing combinations used in ScenarioMIP (Source: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cmip6-overview-notes).
The climate data used in the following figures was retrieved from the World Bank, unless stated otherwise. The climate projection data presented is CMIP6, modeled data from the global climate model compilations derived from the Sixth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs).
The projected data contains the median, and the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values based on a multi-model ensemble, representing the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP.
In this risk assessment tool, only SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 will be used.
Temperature
- Average Daily
- Average Daily Minimum
- Warmest Daily Maximum
- Minimum of Daily-Minimum
- Hot Days
- Tropical Nights
Figure 2. Annual median baseline and projected average daily temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 3. Annual median baseline and projected average daily minimum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 4. Annual median baseline and projected warmest daily maximum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 5. Annual median baseline and projected minimum of daily minimum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 6. Annual median baseline and projected number of hot days (when temperature exceeds 30°C) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 7. Annual median baseline and projected number of hot days (when temperature exceeds 35°C) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 8. Annual median baseline and projected number of tropical nights in Québec, Canada that exceeds 20 °C with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 9. Annual median baseline and projected number of tropical nights in Québec, Canada that exceeds 26 °C with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Precipitation
Figure 10. Annual median baseline and projected annual precipitation (mm) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 11. Annual median baseline and projected number of days with precipitation greater than 20mm in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 12. Annual median baseline and projected number of days with precipitation greater than 50mm in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 13. Annual median baseline and projected average largest 5-day cumulative precipitation (mm) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Last updated: November 10, 2023
References:
The World Bank. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/canada/climate-data-projections
Temperature
- Average Daily
- Average Daily Minimum
- Warmest Daily Maximum
- Minimum of Daily-Minimum
- Hot Days
- Tropical Nights
Figure 14. Annual median baseline and projected average daily temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 15. Annual median baseline and projected average daily minimum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 16. Annual median baseline and projected warmest daily maximum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 17. Annual median baseline and projected minimum of daily minimum temperature in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 18. Annual median baseline and projected number of hot days (when temperature exceeds 30°C) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 19. Annual median baseline and projected number of hot days (when temperature exceeds 35°C) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 20. Annual median baseline and projected number of tropical nights in Québec, Canada that exceeds 20 °C with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 21. Annual median baseline and projected number of tropical nights in Québec, Canada that exceeds 26 °C with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Precipitation
Figure 22. Annual median baseline and projected annual precipitation in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 23. Annual median baseline and projected number of days with precipitation greater than 20mm in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.Figure 24. Annual median baseline and projected number of days with precipitation greater than 50mm in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Figure 25. Annual median baseline and projected average largest 5-day cumulative precipitation (mm) in Québec, Canada with the lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) values displayed.
Drought
Figure 26. Annual median baseline and projected percentage of days that are severely dry or dryer (using the SPEI drought probability in a 6 month period) in Québec, Canada with the lower (5th percentile) and upper (95th percentile) values displayed. Data obtained from Rio Tinto for the city of Arvida using CLIMsystems.
Last updated: November 10, 2023
The World Bank. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/canada/climate-data-projections